Why Kyiv's Struggle Against Record Russian Missile Strikes Matters
LONDON -- Russia set new wartime records for the rate and scale of its missile strikes on Ukrainian cities in July, according to data published by the Ukrainian air force and analyzed by ABC News, as the Ukrainian government accelerated its efforts to patch well-publicized gaps in its aerial defensive umbrella.Across July, Russia launched a total of 381 missiles of all types into Ukraine, the air force in Kyiv said, at a rate of just over 12 per day -- setting new wartime records for the overall number and rate of missiles launched into the country.The data also indicated that missiles have become a more prominent element of Russia's nightly -- and sometimes also daytime -- combined strikes, which are largely comprised of drones. In July, though, the proportion of Russian missiles in the overall munition count increased to a record high of just over 7%, according to Ukrainian air force data analyzed by ABC News.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, his top officials and military commanders have been clear on Kyiv's struggle to intercept Russian missiles, particularly of the ballistic variety, which fly at speeds and attack at angles that make it more difficult to shoot them down. An explosion is seen in Kyiv, Ukraine, during a Russian missile and drone strike, on July 19, 2026.Gleb Garanich/ReutersRussian missiles launched into Ukraine by monthUkrainian Air ForceIn July, the Ukrainian air force reported a Russian missile failure rate -- including munitions that were intercepted, suppressed or failed to reach their targets -- of around 58%. For ballistic missiles -- including Iskander-M and S-400 missiles, which the air force often groups together in its after action reports -- the failure rate was around 28%.Ukraine's air force publishes daily tallies of Russian drone and missile strikes, including information as to how many munitions were intercepted and how many penetrated air defenses. The air force includes a wide range of missile types in its count, sometimes including the "Banderol" low-cost cruise missile.Moscow publishes only the number of Ukrainian drones and other projectiles it claims to have intercepted.ABC News cannot independently verify the data released by either Ukraine or Russia. It is possible that both Kyiv and Moscow may seek to exaggerate the effectiveness of their air defenses, or to amplify the attacks against them.Neither side provides detailed data on the number of munitions used in their own attacks. Both Kyiv and Moscow routinely describe their targets as military, energy or industrial sites and both accuse the other of intentionally attacking civilian targets.A firefighting helicopter drops water over the site of a Russian missile strike in Kyiv region, Ukraine, on July 19, 2026.Anatolii Stepanov/ReutersBallistic cat and mouseThe U.S.-made Patriot surface-to-air missile system has become Ukraine's prime defense against such munitions, but a global shortage of interceptor missiles -- exacerbated by the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war with Iran -- and President Donald Trump's decision to wind down U.S. aid to Kyiv has put severe strain on Ukrainian defenses, officials said.Kyiv is also working to produce its own homegrown interceptor missile -- the Freyja -- and collaborating with European partners to use it in a shared anti-ballistic missile shield. Kyiv is targeting early 2027 for a Freyja prototype, officials have said.Two sit-downs with Trump this month initially produced good news for Kyiv. During warm bilateral meetings with Zelenskyy at the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, and later at the White House, Trump said he would give Ukraine permission to produce Patriot interceptors on Ukrainian soil.This file photo shows a man looking at a Patriot Advanced Capability (PAC-3) Missile Segment Enhancement (MSE) model made by Lockheed Martin at an international military fair in Kielce, Poland, on Sept. 7, 2017.Kacper Pempel/ReutersZelenskyy described the decision as a "historic political agreement," but warned later that there could be no immediate fix.After visiting the White House for talks in late July, Zelenskyy said Ukraine was seeking the delivery of another 300 Patriot interceptor missiles to bolster its defenses before next winter.Trump declined to provide any new missiles and even walked back his commitment to providing Ukraine a Patriot production license. "We have not agreed to that. We're talking about it, but it's a hard thing to give away that kind of technology," the president said during a Cabinet meeting at Camp David last week.The Patriot is Ukraine's most potent weapon in its ongoing cat-and-mouse game with Russia, analysts say, in which both sides are constantly adapting to gain an edge over the other. Russian missiles have been seen employing defensive measures, like deploying flares just before impact to misdirect interceptor missiles, and Moscow routinely changes its directions and timings of attack, Olha Polishchuk of the ACLED conflict monitoring organization told ABC News.This file photo shows an Iskander-M missile launcher during the International Military-Technical Forum "Army 2022" at Kubinka military training ground in Moscow, Russia, on August 17, 2022.Anadolu Agency via Getty ImagesBut Moscow is facing its own logistical pressures as it expands its long-range attacks, according to Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Yuriy Ihnat. He said last month that some of Russia's ballistic missiles were launched into Ukraine just weeks after coming off the factory production line, perhaps indicating that Russia's stockpiles are dwindling.Popular ReadsIn June, Ukraine's military intelligence said that Russian forces could launch up to 100 ballistic missiles each month without exhausting its stockpiles. In July, Ukraine's air force said Russia launched at least 126 such missiles, which may represent an unsustainable tempo if Kyiv's estimates prove correct.Russia's use of a North Korean ballistic missile in strikes in late July might also indicate its production pressures, Ukrainian officials said."Now, Russia sees that it's effective, it exploits it as much as possible," Polishchuk said of Moscow's ballistic strikes. "But it will have to stop at some point to again accumulate those missiles, to then again launch similar attacks. Until Ukraine becomes effective in intercepting them, which will likely take a while."'Every day people die'Through Ukraine's hot summer, the human toll of Russia's long-range attacks is mounting.Through July, Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said the Ukrainian capital was hit by 11 combined missile and drone attacks, killing at least 56 people and wounding another 220 people.People examine a crater from Russian ballistic missile near children's clinic following strikes in the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv on August 1, 2026.Genya Savilov/AFP via Getty ImagesThe last week of July saw Ukrainian cities suffer two major missile attacks, in which at least 17 people were killed. After a deadly attack on July 31, Zelenskyy wrote on X, "Only one ballistic missile was intercepted, simply because there are no interceptors for the Patriot systems."When the missiles do come, Polishchuk said, air raid sirens and SMS alerts give residents only two to four minutes of warning, "Not enough time to get to a shelter," she said. Civilians have no indication of where the missile may land, she added, given that Russian missiles regularly strike residential buildings as well as infrastructure and military targets."There is very little incoming noise, and then 'boom,'" Ivan Stupak, a military analyst and a former officer in the Security Service of Ukraine, told ABC News from Kyiv. The short warning time causes "enormous stress," he added, recalling that the last missile attack on the capital came at 1:30 a.m. local time and "caught me off guard.""Then you are trying to find your clothes and jump in the shelter," Stupak said.First responders operate at a residential building partially destroyed as a result of Russian missile strikes in the western Ukrainian city of Lviv on July 30, 2026.Yuriy Dyachyshyn/AFP via Getty ImagesSerhiy Kiral, the deputy mayor of Lviv, told ABC News that the damage wrought by a ballistic missile strike is "enormous." Last week's impact caused tens of millions of Ukrainian hryvnias in damages, Kiral said, saw dozens of people placed in temporary housing and prompted some 500 people to request aid from government support centers.Even for those who escape death or injury, Kiral said, homes and businesses can be "erased" in seconds and the subsequent psychological trauma can prove a years-long challenge.The United Nations' monitoring mission in Ukraine said last month that it was seeing a "disturbing escalation" in the nature of Russian attacks. June, it said, was the deadliest month for civilians in the country since the opening months of the war in early 2022, with at least 293 civilians killed and 1,990 others injured.Workers carry the body of a resident outside a damaged residential building following a Russian missile strike in Kharkiv, Ukraine, on July 8, 2026.Sergey Bobok/AFP via Getty ImagesThe mission said that the increase was largely driven by long-range Russian attacks.Residents of Kherson -- a southern Ukrainian city which sits along the Dnipro River, which since late 2022 has served as the front line in the southern theater -- are under constant fire, one humanitarian volunteer there told ABC News.The city "is truly in hell," Natalia Sergienko, director of the Kherson Power of the South public organization, said, "The city is almost daily subjected to artillery shelling, guided bomb strikes and drone attacks." Drones pose a particular threat, Sergienko said, routinely attacking civilians, cars and humanitarian transport vehicles."Every day people die from enemy shells. It is impossible to live for years under constant shelling, hearing explosions, losing acquaintances, seeing human pain and remaining the same as before," she said.Firefighters work at the site of a poultry farm which was hit by a Russian airstrike on in the town of Chornobaivka, in Ukraine's Kherson region, in this handout picture released on July 4, 2026.State Emergency Service Of Ukraine via Reuters
