Trump's Climate Policy Faces Scrutiny Amid 'Godzilla' El Niño Warning

Published 13:57 26 Sep 2026 GMT+1

A newly-released report has mapped out exactly which countries are expected to be hit hardest as temperatures climb

As experts warn an incoming 'Godzilla El Niño' could be linked to as many as 451,000 deaths worldwide by February 2027, the Trump Administration's approach to climate monitoring has been to scale back one of its key ocean-tracking programs rather than expand it.

Earlier this year, the National Science Foundation (NSF) began 'descoping' the Ocean Observatories Initiative, a network delivering real-time ocean data from over 900 sensors.

All equipment is being removed from four of the program's five sites, stretching from the Gulf of Alaska to the Irminger Sea between Greenland and Iceland, and down to the waters of North Carolina.

The network cost $386 million to build over a decade and had been regarded as one of the most advanced ocean-observing systems in the world.

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President Trump has previously mocked global warming warnings on Truth Social.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has confirmed the El Niño event bearing down on the US is gathering strength, with a 63 percent chance it reaches the 'very strong' threshold this winter, a level that would make it one of the most powerful on record since tracking began in 1950.

According to a new report from the Climate Impact Lab, the resulting heat could be responsible for the projected death toll between now and February 2027, with experts warning the real figure could climb even higher once indirect deaths are factored in.

Scientists issue warning after finding this year's Super El Niño could be the strongest in 1,000 years (NOAA)

A 'Super El Niño' occurs when sea surface temperatures in the Pacific climb more than 1.5°C above normal.

The UK's Met Office describes El Niño more broadly as a naturally occurring weather cycle in the Pacific Ocean characterized by unusually hot waters near the equator, which changes the circulation of air in the atmosphere, with effects that ricochet outward to affect weather and climate patterns around the globe.

This particular episode reportedly began building in June 2026 and is projected to peak in November, with sea temperatures potentially reaching around 4°C above average.

Scientists now believe 2027 could end up being the warmest year on record as a result, and some researchers have already taken to calling the event 'Godzilla-level', although that label hasn't been adopted by the World Meteorological Organization.

\Expected consequences include a 44 percent rise in extremely hot days, alongside drought, wildfires, flooding, crop failures and a spike in tropical diseases, with the Global South expected to bear the brunt.

A new report from the Climate Impact Lab estimates 451,000 deaths could occur worldwide between September 2026 and February 2027 due to El Niño-driven heat. (Getty Stock Image)

A map released alongside the Climate Impact Lab's report breaks the projected toll down by region. Nigeria alone is forecast to see 31,400 deaths, contributing to an estimated 66,800 across Africa's wider Sahel region. Sudan is projected to record 17,500 deaths, with 10,000 forecast in Niger and 8,000 in Chad. The Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia are collectively expected to see around 19,400 deaths, with a further 19,300 forecast in Indonesia. Brazil and India are also expected to be significantly affected, with 13,300 and 15,800 deaths projected respectively.

Michael Greenstone, co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab and a professor at the University of Chicago, said the research marks a shift from predicting crop damage to forecasting loss of life directly.

'We now can estimate that 451,000 people may die in the coming months due to El Niño,' he said, adding that the figure represents 'parents and children, grandparents and neighbors, people going to work, caring for families, and living their lives.'

Report co-author Tamma Carleton said targeted emergency response 'can save many lives this year,' but warned that governments need to start planning now so the world isn't left in 'a constant state of emergency' as extreme heat becomes normalised over the next two decades.

The last Super El Niño occurred in 2015–16, following earlier events in 1997–98 and 1982–83, though experts caution that no two are identical in how they play out.

Featured Image Credit: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Topics: Climate Change, El Niño, Environment, Weather, Donald Trump